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　　We sometimes wonder how we end up thinking as we do. It is as if we are in a different universe compared to other commentators. Last week we read after we wrote our commentary the expectations of others. Last week we estimated based on the USDA’s March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report, that lean hogs would be 89-98 lean in May-August of 2015. Below are other estimates.

　　正如我們在做的，我們有時候會想我們要如何結(jié)束思考。我們似乎和其它評論家生活在不同的世界。上周寫完評論后，我們讀了其他人的預(yù)測。上周，我們根據(jù)美國農(nóng)業(yè)部3月1日的生豬報告預(yù)測2015年5月—8月的瘦肉豬價格應(yīng)該在89~98美分之間。下面是其他人的預(yù)測。

　　Obviously, our expectation is between $35-50 per head higher than others (economists) are. We are not exactly following the crowd. Why do we think so different?

　　很明顯，我們每頭35~50美元的預(yù)測要高于其它(經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家)的觀點。我們確實沒有跟隨主流。為什么我們會有不同的想法?

　　The US March 1 Market hog Inventory this year was 124,000 head less than March 1 2014: In 2013 Lean Hogs averaged 95? lean May-August. Same number of Hogs in inventory 2015.

　　今年美國3月1日的生豬存欄是124,000頭，比2014年3月1日的數(shù)量更低。2013年5月~8月的瘦肉豬平均價格為95美元。2015年的生豬存欄量不變。

　　US Pork Cut-outs were 64.44 last Thursday. US Beef Cut-outs 256.40 last Thursday. Beef Cut-outs currently 4 times Pork Cut-outs. We absolutely believe this spread will narrow as consumers up consumption of Pork due to its economic advantage. Demand increases prices. We see little reason for Beef prices to decline with US Beef Production down 5% year over year and inventory levels at a record low. IF Pork Cut-outs reach $1.00 Beef will still be 2.5 time more expensive.

　　上周四，美國豬肉切塊的價格為64.44美分/lb。上周四，美國牛肉切塊的價格為256.40美分/lb。牛肉切塊價格目前是豬肉切塊的4倍。由于價格優(yōu)勢，我們絕對相信隨著消費(fèi)者增加豬肉的消費(fèi)，這一差價將會縮小。需求推高價格。由于美國牛肉產(chǎn)量下降5%且存欄量處于歷史低位，我們認(rèn)為牛肉價格下跌可能不大。如果豬肉切塊的價格達(dá)到1美元，牛肉的價格仍將高出2.5倍。

　　The US population is approximately 4 million more people more than in 2013. This increases demand. More people at flat per capita consumption in itself increases demand. 4 million more people will need a minimum extra one million market hogs to meet their average pork demand requirements.

　　美國人口比2013 年增加約400萬。這增加了需求。在人均消費(fèi)量保存不變的情況下，人口的增長將會增加需求。增加的4百萬人口將需求增加至少1百萬頭豬來滿足平均的豬肉需求。

　　We also see market weights declining. A year ago, the National Lean Hog Weight this past week was 214.45 lbs., last week this year hog weights are 214.40. Lower weights will cut pork supply and help strengthen lean hog prices.

　　我們還看到上市體重下降。去年的上一周，全國瘦肉豬體重為214.45 lb。今年的上一周生豬體重為214.40 lb。體重下降將減少豬肉供應(yīng)并有助于提振瘦肉豬價格。

　　Sow herd expansion is ongoing but it will not effect to any degree the number of hogs going to market in the next five months as they were all born and in place March 1. What we have to sell to market until the end of August are already in pipeline. There are no more pigs than March 1, 2013.

　　母豬群的擴(kuò)張正在進(jìn)行，但這不會影響到未來5個月的生豬出欄數(shù)量。這些情況發(fā)生在3月1日，而現(xiàn)在的豬都是過去出生的。要到8月底，我們才開始出售這些商品豬。豬的數(shù)量并沒有比2013年3月1日更多。

　　We strongly expect greater exports to China to kick in. Huge herd liquidation of 7 million sows, China Hog prices double current US hog prices will push pork to China. When it happens, major market mover.

　　我們非常希望能開始有更多出口到中國。中國有7百萬頭母豬的大量淘汰，而中國的生豬價格是目前美國生豬價格的2倍，這將驅(qū)動豬肉出口到中國。這一旦發(fā)生，將對市場造成較大的影響。

　　Other Observations

　　我們的觀察

　　Was at the London Swine Conference this past week. The Olymel-Quebec Packer strike was a major topic as it is causing major havoc in Ontario with the loss of 25,000 shackle spaces. We expect this will put a lid on Ontario Production expansion with ongoing worries where market hogs can fine homes. At some point the strike will be settled but it effect will linger over market consideration for a long time. (news flash – Olymel has settled with union, back to work on Tuesday)

　　倫敦養(yǎng)豬大會上周舉行。Olymel在魁北克屠宰廠的罷工是一個熱門的話題，因為這給安大略省帶來了嚴(yán)重破壞，損失了25,000頭合同空間。由于對商品豬出路的持續(xù)擔(dān)心，我們這將會影響安大略的生產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張。罷工最終會被解決，但這仍將對市場在很長時間內(nèi)造成影響。(最新消息：Olymel已經(jīng)和工會和解，周二復(fù)工。)

　　Interesting video on Gestation Housing take a look it give a perspective on sow housing many in our industry will agree with.

　　有一個關(guān)于妊娠舍的視頻很有趣，值得一看。這個視頻基于母豬舍的視角，我們行業(yè)的很多人都會同意。

　　On the Corn front, USDA came out with predictions of more land going into Corn than expected. It appears that there will be significant Corn and Soybeans planted. The wildcard is weather. Good weather feed stays reasonable. Draught different story. All bets off.

　　關(guān)于玉米的最新消息，美國農(nóng)業(yè)部發(fā)布預(yù)測稱玉米的種植面積比期望的更多?？瓷先写罅康挠衩缀痛蠖狗N植。決定因素就是天氣。天氣好的情況下，飼料就會合理。干旱則是另外一種情況。原來的預(yù)測全部推翻。

　　Corn in China is currently 10.50 USD/bushel, Soymeal 550 USD/ton. With relatively low sow productivity, high disease levels etc. the combination of feed costs and low productivity is why China’s breakeven is around 85? USD liveweight/lb.

　　當(dāng)前的中國玉米價格為每蒲式耳10.5美元，大豆為每噸550美元。母豬的生產(chǎn)力相對較低，疾病情況嚴(yán)重。加上飼料成本和低生產(chǎn)效率，這就是為什么中國的保本價在85美分/lb左右。

　　Not sure how this will effect hog market, but we are hearing stories of ongoing major mortalities in the Carolinas from Prrs.

　　不確定這會對生豬市場造成什么影響，但是我們最近聽說藍(lán)耳病在卡羅利納造成了持續(xù)大量死亡。

　　總結(jié)

　　Summary

　　We are projecting lean hog prices mid 90’s this summer. This is significantly higher than other commentators. We believe market inventory levels, relative to demand both domestic and international will lead to summer prices similar to 2013. Mid 90’s.

　　我們預(yù)測今年夏天的瘦肉豬價格在95美分左右。這明顯比其它評論家的預(yù)測更高。我們相信，根據(jù)商品豬存欄情況以及國內(nèi)和國際的需求情況將會使夏季的豬價格和2013年類似。95美分左右。

　　"Economists are like computers. They need to have facts punched into them: ~ Kenneth Boulding"

　　“經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家就像電腦。他們需要輸入一些真實數(shù)據(jù)。——肯尼思·博爾丁”